Lexington, SC (Rich Bolen) - This is a reprise of my November 6, 2016 analysis of the election held on the 8th. It is uncanny how similar this years’ dynamic is to 2016. The reasons Trump trounces Biden are different then the reasons he trounced Hillary (304-227). It will be a bigger trouncing this time. Trump very well may get more than 320 electoral college votes. I’ll start with the specific reasons and work to the general principles that support a big Trump win.
The riots have scared a lot of people who want law and order particularly in traditional Democrat strongholds. Many people who would not otherwise vote for Trump will vote Trump to restore order to their cities.
Biden is anti-oil and anti-fracking, that is essentially anti-America. That will drive lots of votes to Trump.
People are really tired of anti-COVID measures especially lockdowns. Biden has threatened a national lockdown. That will drive a lot of voters to Trump.
The press has been so unfair to Trump that even people who instinctively don’t like Trump feel sympathy for him because of this mistreatment at the hands of the press. That will get him some votes.
The unpollable enthusiasm factor is off-the-chart for Trump. Biden voters (if there is such a thing versus anti-Trump voters) are luke warm at best. If there are long lines on Election Day they are leaving. Trump voters are probably already lining up to vote on Tuesday.
Democrats usually have an incredibly large advantage with minorities. They do not this year with two old rich white guys on the ballot. Additionally Trump has made huge inroads into the minority voting block.
Most of the skeptical traditional Republican voters who could not bring themselves to vote for Trump in 2016 have come around viewing Trump’s accomplishments. Nearly all of them will vote for him this time.
Biden has done very little to convince the few people still undecided to vote for him. Most undecideds will pull the lever for Trump.
Incumbents have a natural advantage generally and especially when there is turmoil in the nation. Most people will agree 2020 is a year of turmoil, that gives Trump a big advantage and a lot of votes.
Most important in any presidential election: the cool guy wins. You would be hard-pressed to find someone who thinks Biden is cooler than Trump. Trump’s coolness advantage over Biden is bigger than it was over Hillary. That factor alone decides this election.
For these reason and probably many more Trump wins easily and we should know on election night.
NOTE: Opinion editorials are the opinion of their authors. They do not necessarily represent the opinion of the management and staff of The Lexington Ledger. Rich Bolan is a Lexington attorney that is the former chairman of the Lexington County Republican Party.
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